Nick’s Dice Challenge Analysis 7/25/14


We’re back with another Dice With Buddies community challenge! Our members debated which move was the best to make, given the above situation. Now Dice With Buddies senior product manager Nick Freilich shares his own carefully calculated approach:

“Here’s a situation where, thanks to some favorable rolls early on (especially the 20 points on 5s and 24 points on 6s), I’d have the flexibility to be a bit daring and aggressive. Starting with three 2s on my first roll, I’d most definitely go for a Five of a Kind, which I’d have a 7% of getting with two more rolls, and a 15% chance if I used a Bonus Roll. I only need 8 more points in the Upper Section to get the 35-point bonus, so if I don’t draw another 2, I could always score a 0 in 3s and just use two 4s later to get that bonus. The bigger question is what to do in the case where I hit a fourth 2, but not the fifth. A best-case scenario for Four of a Kind value would be 14, which isn’t great. However, it is something, and the average Four of a Kind total is—assuming you don’t get a 0—around 18. So since I wouldn’t be sacrificing too many points there, especially because a Four of a Kind is never a given, I would probably make that play if I only got four 2s.” 

Stay tuned for more challenges on our Dice With Buddies Facebook page, along with chances to win free Bonus Rolls!

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